Methodology

1. What counts as a prediction

From algorithmic prediction sites we record the numeric price forecasts they publish for specific dates (for example a 30-day or end-of-year target), captured by an automated daily snapshot. From YouTube channelswe extract explicit calls from video transcripts — a named asset, a stated direction, and where present a concrete price target and time frame. Every extracted call is reviewed by a human against the original video before it is published; vague statements (“could go higher”) are rejected.

2. Evidence

Each prediction is stored with its value, the timestamp we captured it, the source URL, and a raw snapshot of the page or transcript taken at capture time. The archive is written before the outcome is known and is never edited afterwards. Every graded row on this site links to its source.

3. Grading

A prediction is graded only after its target date has passed, using the daily market price from CoinGecko. Two metrics are computed:

• Absolute percentage error— |predicted − actual| ÷ actual. A forecaster’s headline score is the average of this error across all of their graded predictions (lower is better).
• Direction hit — whether the predicted move (up or down relative to the price on the day the prediction was made) matched the actual move by the target date.

4. Exclusions

• Predictions whose target date had already passed when we captured them are never graded — the outcome was already knowable.
• Assets without a reliable market price on the target date (for example delisted coins) are skipped, not counted against anyone.
• YouTube calls without a concrete price target and date appear on a forecaster’s page as verified calls but are not included in error scores.

5. What we do not do

We publish measured accuracy, not characterizations. A low score means a forecaster’s past public predictions deviated from actual prices by the stated amount — nothing more. Nothing on this site is investment advice, and past accuracy does not predict future accuracy.